Monday 21 April 2008

it doesn't get any more pessimistic than this...

The World's Future isn't as possibly as bright as I think it might be.

I fear that the future might be really be an apocalyptic one. I base this pessimism on the premise that we are not acting fast enough on issues of climate change and sustainable development. Actually, I would think that both issues are really intertwined, but I would actually put sustainable development on a higher priority, because it really ought to be that - the biggest priority right now in our civilisation. Of course, that is the coarse-graining kind of viewpoint. Sustainable development is the overarching idea that our human civilisation should be based upon. Its implementation will transform the way we view our lives, societies, industries, politics, economics and more. It requires both this coarse-grained idea, and the fine-grained details, how small revolutions in the way we live our lives will affect that bigger picture as whole.

I'm excited about technology and its revolutionary, transformative way it changes and upends the whole order of things and our lives. I think in a way, technology is really about serving human needs, and it has done so, albeit in sometimes destructive ways. It has only come to me only just then, that since technology is so human-centred, since it is a human process, the process of technological evolution is going to be highly dependent on human motivation. And that motivation is going to come in the form of economic incentives - laws and other social processes that might either promote or retard the development of technology.

But here's the scary thought. What if technology can't keep pace with our emissions? What if we don't have the political and global will to act on climate change? What if consequences far worse than those predicted come into reality?

This is the world that I fear, a world of droughts and storms, a world of scarcity, of strive and suffering. How would that world look like?

This writing is inspired by Mark Lynas' book called Six Degrees, where he illustrates what every degree rise in temperature would mean. He has done extensive research about how the weather patterns might change due to the warming effects, and what it means for the world.

I mean, we all hear about the degrees and the rises in temperature, and the rise in sea levels, but we hardly think about the actual human consequences and the fallout from rising temperatures. Similarly, we hear of economic contractions and we don't realise the loss of jobs, unemployment and the resulting ruptures in social fabric. But this time, changes in the climate corresponding from the rise in temperatures - this is about the ultimate rupture in human civilisation and the end to life on Earth.

There was a time when life nearly died on Earth. That mass extinction occurred about 220 million years ago, at the boundary of two geological time eras, the Permian and the Triassic, and as such, that mass extinction event is known today to scientists as the PT mass extinction event. That event wiped out 95 percent of all life on Earth, on land and in the seas. It was caused by a period of warming that released huge amounts of methane into the atmosphere.

We are doing something of the near-equivalent today. The warming that we are contributing into the planet might eventually be enough, within the century, to cause the release of huge amounts of methane gas into the atmosphere and cause the next major mass extinction event of the planet.

But I think before those events actually happen, mankind might have already wiped itself out from the strife caused on a warming planet. There might not be a man left to see the final death of life on Earth.

Climate change from warming is going to have disastrous effects to humanity if continue unabated. At current rates, the water sources of major cities in the world, whether Europe, Asia or American, might become depleted by the end of this century. In a world where water is scarce, don't expect people to die of thirst. People will take up arms and force water for themselves.

But not only that. Loss of water and drought is going to reduce water for agriculture and food. Without food, people will go hungry, and they will not wait to starve. Again, they will take up weapons and take food for themselves by force.

Is it that simple? Yes. It is essentially simple. But people will clothe their struggles for food and water with ideas of history and religion to complicate matters, and will use that justify total war as they see it. By then, people's hate and anger would have clouded their judgements so much, their quest for survival so strong, that by then, no amount of peace process will resolve peace in areas of conflict.

Countries with strong militaries will act to secure resources for their own country and leave out food and waters for others, and they will do so using both language and imageries to justify their actions.

By then, the links of globalization will be severed one by one, as regions of the world become insular and isolated. Countries will look inwards to themselves, impose authoritarian rule and impose heavy censorship. The Internet, so reliant on links, will wither. Countries will fight wars of utter destruction, design to kill, not to rule, simply because the leftover resources will not be enough to feed those in the invaded lands.

Its a new world of anarchy, a world in parched darkness, a world, nearing its end.

The climate crisis is the ultimate crisis for the entire human civilisation in our time.

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